Was Hillary Clinton's 2016 Defeat A Gift to the Democratic Party?
Hillary Clinton was the Democratic Party's 2016 presidential nominee |
The Republican Party just became the victim of this curse, when Donald Trump won the presidential election in 2016 in an unexpecting victory that shocked the world, Trump's 2016 victory was more of a victory for the Democratic Party rather than the GOP's, because of two-years later, when the Republicans gained the presidency, that means the Republican Party has traded 41 seats in the House of Representatives for the White House.
If you win the White House, you've put your party in a "midterm trap"
Results of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election, this map was created with Mapcharts by the blogger himself! |
Historically, it is the President's party that loses seats, especially in the U.S. House of Representatives, despite there are exceptions. When Trump won the presidential election in 2016, he's doomed the Republican Party, because, in 2018, the Republican Party has lost the trifecta government that they've gained in 2016, by losing 41 house seats, enough seats to lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and lost seats in state and local races, despite a couple of gains in the Senate (except the 2018 Senate popular vote). Now, as a price for winning the White House in 2016, Trump now has to deal with a Democratic House of Representatives led by a person third in line in the line of succession to the Presidency, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, OOPS! you've won the presidency, now you gotta deal with an empowered opposition party in one house of Congress!
If Trump wins reelection, it's still a "midterm trap" for the Republican Party!
If Trump manages to survive through 2020 and ends up winning reelection, then the Republican Party might have put themselves in an even worse "midterm trap". When Obama won reelection in 2012, his Democratic Party in the 2014 U.S. midterm elections lost so badly that they lost the Senate and voter turnout was at its 1942 election levels (the lowest turnout). The Republican Party was puttin a stronger position and stayed in that position between 2015 to 2019.
If Trump wins reelection in 2020, then we might see the Democratic Party winning their strongest majority since 2009 (except without the Presidency) in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, and could have an impact on the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The point is, if you want to be President of the United States, there is a price or more than one price to pay, and one of these prices is your party, Democrat or Republican, is losing ground in midterm elections. Being President of the United States is not as easy as you may think it is, and Trump is learning that lesson, mightily the hard way by becoming the first Republican President since Gerald Ford since 1974 to lose over 40 seats in the House of Representatives.
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