2018 U.S. Midterm Elections are FINALLY OVER, let's talk about THE FINAL RESULTS.

A Blue Wave vs a Red Wall

A BLUE WAVE vs a RED WALL

In the 2018 United States midterm elections, there was a mixed decision on election night, that ended up fading days after the election, a Democratic House, and a Republican Senate, but the Democrats, what the media thought was not a blue wave, won a 40 seat pickup majority in the House of Representatives, the largest performance for the party itself since the 1974 midterm elections in the House, but in the Senate, a Red Wall, plus, a mini Red Wave because of net two seats gained. In terms of the popular vote of both chambers of Congress, according to the New York Times, the Democrats won the popular vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but the Senate was ironically huge for Democrats, 59% of voters who voted in the Senate elections voted for a Democratic Senator while a 39% of voters voted for a Republican Senator nationwide, the worst popular vote performance for a majority party. The Democrats in the House won the largest popular vote margin for an opposition party since the 1946 U.S. House of Representatives elections under President Truman, a 53% of the vote for Democrats, to the Republicans' 44% of the vote according to Wikipedia. In the Governors' map, the Democrats swept seven governor's mansions previously held by the Republican Governor, while the Republicans swept only one governor's mansion in Alaska from an Independent. Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Maryland, four Democratic states, reelected their Republican governors. Democrats won three important 2020 rust belt states, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the three critical states that threw Trump in office. 

The Republicans' Rustbelt Problem

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will be Trump's critical states for reelection in 2020.

In all, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Governors' elections, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, by popular vote, voted for Democrats, something Trump supporters should be worried about, if Trump loses these states, and lose all of the 2016 states that voted against him, he will lose reelection in a 279-259 electoral vote margin. Making matters worse for Trump, these states vote Democratic most of the time since the 1990s. 

Results of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. NOTE: 232 + PV means, lost the electoral college, but won the popular vote.

Trump ran on a populist message, attacking free trade, NAFTA, and more, but when he governs, he does the opposite, he signed a NAFTA deal that enables corporations more than enables workers, his trade wars is costing the rust belt more jobs rather than creating them, and a big Corporate tax giveaway to Corporations, leading to the cutting of jobs, and CEOs partying over a big tax break (see source), and slow economic recovery for the Rust-Belt under Trump (see source). 

Republicans' Suburban and White Female Problem

According to CNN's exit polls, 49% of Suburnites voted Democratic, while another 49% remained Republican, because of growing anger towards Trump and his behavior, in the 2016 election, 50% of Suburban voters voted for Trump, while 45% voted for Clinton, showing how Republicans are losing Suburbanites, especially Republicans losing White Women in a 49-49% split between Democrats and Republicans, in 2016, Trump won 53% of White Women, to Clinton's 43% of this demographic according to Edison exit polling. If Trump doesn't change, he'll underperform among these demographics regardless of the outcome of 2020. 

Republicans' Elderly Problem

Old voters are the most active in voting than young people, these voters vote overwhelmingly Republican, in 2016, Trump won old voters with 53% of their votes to Clinton's 44% among 50-64-year-olds, and another 53% to Clinton's 45% among over 64-year-olds according to the Edison exit polling, but in the 2018 House races all according to CNN's exit polls, Trump's Republican Party underperformed among old folks, they won 50% of both 50-64-year-olds and over 64-year-olds, to the Democrats' 49% among 50-64-year-olds and the Democrats' 48% among over 64-year-olds, this problem may not effect Trump in 2020, but it will certainly hurt the Republican Party moving forward, the reason for this underperformance by the GOP is probably because of Trumpcare (American Health Care Act of 2017) and Republicans' plots to cut programs that help old people.

Republicans' Popular Vote problem

Republicans losing the nationwide popular vote in all, the House of Representatives, the Gubernatorial races, even in the Senate (where Republicans expanded their majority), shows the Democratic Party is more popular than the Republican Party regardless who wins the elections, Republicans lost the popular vote in six out of the past seven presidential elections between 1992 to 2016, Clinton (D) in 1992, Clinton (D) in 1996, Gore (D) in 2000, Bush (R) in 2004, Obama (D) in 2008, Obama (D) in 2012, and Clinton (D) in 2016. In the House races, Democrats won 53% of the vote, to the House Republicans' 44%. In the Senate, Republicans DROWNED in the popular vote despite expanding their majority by a couple of seats, Senate Democrats won 59% of the vote, to the Senate Republicans' 39% of the vote, not a close margin, and in the gubernatorial races, fairly close, but Democrats won 50% of the vote to the Republicans' 47% of the vote.

Senate Elections in 2018

Republicans expanded their majority, but drowned in the popular vote, Ted Cruz unbelievably underperformed for a Republican Senator in a primarily Republican state, winning 50% to Beto O'Rourke's 48%, Texas is a state where Republicans win over 50% of the vote, the Republicans failed to break through the Midwest on the Senate map, Democrats successfully defended Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which would mean, on the regional alignment of the country, the Senate map doesn't look really good for Republicans, because they failed to win the Midwest states, and the southwestern sunbelt states, where Hispanic populations are on the rise, but Republicans picking up Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida, prevented the GOP from losing their majority.